Labor shortages could bring
unique employment solutions
Labor shortages, brought on by the
mass retirement of Baby Boomers and a dearth of younger, college-educated
workers to fill the void, will fuel the most dramatic trends and transformations
in the workplace over the next 25 years.
Imagine one day:
• bidding for workers in an online auction;
• going to class at the Microsoft Lecture Hall;
• setting the work schedule by year vs. week;
• obtaining a degree in generational mediation.
"These are just some of the
trends that could result in a society where the number of retirement-age
Americans, 65 and older, will grow at a much faster rate than the age groups
that will be needed to replace them," said John A. Challenger, CEO of
international outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Between 2005 and 2015, the number of
people 65 and older is expected to increase 26 percent. Meanwhile, the
population of 40- to 54-year-olds will shrink by 5 percent. Furthermore, there
is not much relief behind them: The number of Americans 25 to 39 will grow by
only 6 percent between 2005 and 2015.
The retirement surge could result in
a human capital crisis for employers across the country. For some, the crisis is
a matter of months away.
"This will present challenges
for employers, workers and society in general. However, it could also present
some intriguing opportunities for enterprising individuals and companies. The
response to these challenges and opportunities will drive the workplace trends,
many of which are already beginning to take shape," said Challenger.
It may be difficult to envision amid
downsizing and the highest unemployment rate in a decade, but within 10 years,
job seekers will again be in extremely high demand. This could lead to bidding
wars over the most talented workers, just as it did in the late 1990s.
In addition to the aging population,
the trends shaping the workplace of the future will be heavily influenced by
rapidly advancing technology, such as nanotechnology; record downsizing and push
toward a just-in-time workforce; and women's ascent up the education and
corporate ladder.
Here are
Challenger's top trends.
Mediators will be used create generational
harmony
With Baby Boomers vowing to stay in the workforce and a
growing number of seniors over 65 coming back to work, it will not be long
before companies see the age range of their workers span four generations.
To help companies manage the delicate balance between these diverse
generations, a new breed of consultant will be created: the corporate age
advisor.
He or she will mediate conflicts between age groups, ensure that
each department has the right mix of generations to achieve its goals and
develop programs to increase the harmony between groups.
Online auctions will replace
recruiting
Online auction sites have been used to sell everything from
used record albums to multi-million dollar homes, so why not temporary workers? Temporary workers will become increasingly important as companies try to
maintain a just-in-time workforce.
However, labor shortages could drive up
salaries as well as the fees paid to firms that provide temporary workers. To eliminate the middleman, companies will go directly to the workers
through online sites. A precursor to this can already be found in
reEmploy.com, which places retired workers with their former employers on a
temporary basis.
Corporations will mobilize to find
workers
Fear of change, terrorism, crime, and so forth is prompting more
Americans to avoid relocation. For employers, the trend could make things
particularly difficult in the next five to 10 years when many experts anticipate
severe shortages of skilled labor in certain parts of the country.
In
order to survive, more companies may be forced to relocate operations to areas
with more potential workers. Corporate migration has become more common in
recent years. Up until 1994, only about 5,000 corporate moves were
recorded each year. The number has since more than doubled to about 11,000
per year, according to site selection magazine.
Consultants will be hired to teach
retirement
Where there is a dilemma, a consulting business cannot be far
behind. As the nation's Baby Boomers begin reaching early retirement age
in less than five years, a new business opportunity will arise: couples
retirement consulting, who will help find ways cope with the changes and help
these couples discover what they want to do in their retirement.
Such a
service will be in high demand, especially in dual-income households where both
husband and wife retire around the same time. The adjustment of going from
a situation where both are working to one where both are retired will almost
certainly be a difficult one to manage.
Campuses will become corporate
billboards
In an effort to influence careers as well as buying decisions,
corporations will have a greater and more visible presence on America's campuses
and colleges will welcome this with open arms as these institutions fight to
hold down surging tuition.
Just as sports stadiums carry the name of the
primary corporate sponsor, so will university libraries and science halls.
Corporate logos, products and services will become ubiquitous fixtures on
campuses.
Flextime will be measured by the calendar, not the
clock
The typical 40- to 50-hour work week will one day be a
footnote in the history books, as households with two full-time earners push for
more flexible scheduling alternatives in order to balance work and personal
lives.
One plan that may eventually take hold is setting an annual work
requirement. In this option, workers would be required to dedicate 2,000
to 2,500 hours to work-related activities, for example. This would be
particularly well suited for industries and businesses that experience seasonal
slowdowns that might otherwise compel companies to initiate layoffs.
Womenıs gains will help shrink wage
gap
The gap between men's and women's wages will continue to
shrink as women flock to labor-short industries for jobs. Women are
branching quickly into sectors of the economy that are currently suffering or
are expected to suffer from shortages of skilled labor. They also
represent a growing portion of graduates in the high-paying fields of dentistry,
medicine and law.
More companies will launch programs designed to clear
the obstacles hindering women's ascent to the upper ranks of the corporate
ladder, such as mentoring programs, audits of compensation issues and continuing
education in harassment and discrimination.
Dot-coms will make a
comeback
A rebirth of the high-tech industry, which has announced more
than 1.3 million job cuts in the last three years, may occur just as rapidly as
its downfall. Some of the growth will come from a surprising place: the
Internet.
Security is one area well-suited for the Internet and already
there are a growing number of companies offering online background checks and
identity confirmation. Another area of technology that will take off and
require more workers in the years to come is nanotechnology, which is computer
technology on a microscopic scale.
Corporate recruiters will follow NBA to high
schools
Since the NBA has had success by hiring raw basketball talent
right out of high school, why not corporate America? The share of workers
with post-high school education will grow just 4 percent between now and
2020. As a result, corporations will be compelled to take over the
education of their future workers.
High school graduates will go directly
to employer universities, where they will be educated in math, science and
technology, the areas where skills seem to be weakest. Corporate educators
will continue the tradition of teaching literature, philosophy, psychology, and
so on to develop the reasoning and problem-solving skills which are also
essential in today's workplace.
Entrepreneurs will get younger and employers will
suffer
Undaunted by the downfall of the dot-coms, the generation in
college during the recession that began in March 2001, may initiate a new wave
of entrepreneurial ventures as the idea of working for someone else loses
appeal. The number of colleges and universities offering entrepreneurship
programs and degree programs has grown to more than 550, up from just a handful
in the 1980s.
Making room for entrepreneurs in the corporate structure is
one challenge employers will have to consider, lest they lose some of the best
and the brightest to self employment. Companies that can offer positions
that allow candidates to utilize their entrepreneurial skills will have an edge
over their competitors.
Resumes will go high
tech
Nanotechnology that will soon be used for tracking consumer
products may one day be used in humans to store a tamper-proof record of one's
personal, professional and educational background.
A microchip about the
size of a grain of sand could be imbedded in American workers who, simply by
passing through a radio frequency field (the doorway into the human resources
department), would send the information to the hiring manager's computer.
Such technology will not only eliminate the need for traditional paper
resumes, but it will save employers from hiring firms to conduct expensive
background checks.
There will be civil war between the
public and private
sectors for workers
The Federal government will battle with the
private sector for the best workers, as retirements sweep away the most
knowledgeable employees in both sectors over the next seven years.
Labor
shortages threaten to impact agencies critical in the fight against terrorism,
including Departments of Defense, Transportation and State. The Federal
Emergency Management Agency could lose up to 45 percent of its employees. The
deciding factor in the war for workers may come down to health care. While
all federal employees are eligible for health insurance, the number receiving
such coverage in the private sector is shrinking.
Private sector employees
who do have coverage are being asked to pay a larger share of rising health
insurance premiums. If trends continue, the hiring advantage will most
assuredly go to the government.
