by Tom Hammel

This predicting the future thing isn’t as easy as it looks. Sure, if you’re an astrologer, you can string together vague but portentous sounding phrases so they seem specific but really aren’t. Politicians also excel at this. However, if you intend to do a serious job of it, well, that takes research — especially if you want to predict events in a sector like the Manufacturing/MRO market.

There is no single source, no big window on such a broad market. Instead, like blindfolded men trying to describe an elephant by touch, there are many small ones, each dealing with a different area. This is actually a good thing, though, because compiling info from numerous sources creates a far more reliable picture than if it were based on one or two.

For our Forecast 2007, we researched dozens of industry-specific reports, economic indicators in government updates and research bureau projections. Then we conducted interviews with leaders in key market segments to see if the view from the trenches agreed with the view from above. By and large, it did.

However, economists who focus mostly on indicators like the Gross Domestic Product and interest rates, tended to be less optimistic than players in specific industries, like abrasive, cutting tool or electric motor manufacturers. Certainly, there is a bit of self-fulfilling — or wishful thinking— prophesying going on, but then again, manufacturers are by definition closer to the pulse of their markets.

So how does the pulse feel? In a word, strong. MRO Today’s Forecast 2007 examines the major trends, issues and opportunities in the MRO market, including outsourcing, plant construction, China’s impact on raw material costs, labor, productivity and Lean manufacturing and how they all combine to shape the market climate. Finally, the report also looks at the coming year’s projections for product consumption in specific MRO industries. Yours may well be among them. Read the story and let me know what you think.

Oh, and while we’re predicting the future, you can help predict the winners of our 2006 MRO All-Pro team awards contest by nominating a deserving member of your maintenance team. Click here for the online nomination form. Give one of your best people a positive outlook going into 2007, too.

This article appeared in the October/November 2006 issue of MRO Today magazine. Copyright 2006.

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